The Seattle Storm face the New York Liberty in a high-profile WNBA matchup on July 6, 2025, at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. This game, a rematch of Seattle’s 89-79 upset win over New York on June 22, pits two playoff contenders against each other, with the Liberty looking to even the season series. Below is a comprehensive breakdown of the odds, viewing options, predictions, and betting tips, drawing on the latest available information.
Match Details
- Teams: Seattle Storm vs. New York Liberty
- Date: Sunday, July 6, 2025
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET (10:00 a.m. PT)
- Venue: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
- Competition: WNBA Regular Season
- Head-to-Head: The Storm won the first 2025 meeting 89-79 in Seattle, ending New York’s 10-1 start. The Liberty lead the all-time series 5-1 over the past two seasons, with four wins by at least eight points.
How to Watch
- TV Channels:
- National: CBS
- Streaming:
- Paramount+: Offers a free one-week trial for new users, streaming the game live.
- WNBA League Pass: Available for live viewing, with blackout restrictions possible in some regions.
- Fubo: Carries CBS with a free trial option for new subscribers.
- DirecTV Stream: Includes CBS for streaming.
- Live Updates: Follow via the WNBA’s official app, VAVEL’s Live Match Centre, or Sofascore for real-time scores and stats.
- International: Fans outside the U.S. may need a VPN (e.g., NordVPN or ExpressVPN) to access Paramount+ or WNBA League Pass due to geo-restrictions.
- Post-Match Highlights: Available on YouTube, Dailymotion, or the WNBA’s Media tab on Sofascore shortly after the game.
Odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook, subject to change)
- Spread: Liberty -5.5 (-110), Storm +5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Liberty -240, Storm +195
- Over/Under: 167.5 (-110)
- Player Props:
- Breanna Stewart Over 22.5 points (-104)
- Sabrina Ionescu Over 3.5 threes (-105)
- Nneka Ogwumike Over 17.5 points (-108)
- Jewell Loyd Over 19.5 points (-130)
Team and Player Insights
- New York Liberty (12-5, 7-1 home): The Liberty, leading the Eastern Conference, have struggled recently, dropping four of their last six games, coinciding with All-Star center Jonquel Jones’ absence due to an ankle injury (out for her seventh straight game). Despite this, Breanna Stewart (21.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG) remains a scoring machine, posting 32 points (10/16 FG, 3/4 3PT) in their June 22 loss to Seattle. Sabrina Ionescu (17 PPG, 2.8 3PM) is a long-range threat but has shot below 40% in her last five games. The Liberty’s defense, ranked second in the WNBA (76.3 PPG allowed), is weakened without Jones, who grabs 33.8% of defensive rebounds. Their 46.6% field goal percentage and 45-17 rebounding edge in the last Storm meeting highlight their potential when clicking.
- Seattle Storm (11-7, 5-4 road): The Storm, fifth in the WNBA standings, are riding a 5-2 stretch, including an 80-79 road win over Atlanta on July 3. Skylar Diggins-Smith (18.3 PPG, 6.2 APG) leads the offense, shooting 43.8% from three over her last five games, while Nneka Ogwumike (17.2 PPG, 8.5 RPG) exploits mismatches, averaging 7.8 rebounds and scoring 24 points in the June 22 win. Gabby Williams (16 PTS, 7 REB, 5 AST, 3 STL vs. Liberty) adds versatility, and Ezi Magbegor (2.1 BPG) anchors a top-five defense (78.4 PPG allowed). However, Katie Lou Samuelson is out, and Seattle’s 1-7 ATS record in their last eight road games is a concern.
Injury Report
- Liberty: Jonquel Jones (C, ankle, out), Leonie Fiebich (F, questionable, recently returned from EuroBasket).
- Storm: Katie Lou Samuelson (F, out).
Predictions
- Game Outcome: Despite the Liberty’s home dominance (14-2 at Barclays Center in 2024), their struggles without Jones—failing to cover in three straight games—open the door for Seattle. The Storm’s top-five defense and balanced attack, led by Diggins-Smith and Ogwumike, give them a 68% win probability per Dimers’ 10,000 simulations, predicting an 83-78 upset. Seattle’s 8-2 ATS record in the last 10 head-to-heads and 5-2 ATS on the road support this. However, the Liberty’s 6-2 ATS record against Western Conference teams and Stewart’s scoring prowess (32 points vs. Seattle last meeting) make a close game likely.
- Final Score Prediction: Storm 82, Liberty 79 (Seattle covers +5.5, game goes under 167.5).
- Key Factors:
- Liberty’s Rebounding Woes: Without Jones, New York’s 57.4% rebounding rate post-Olympic break drops significantly, allowing Seattle’s Magbegor and Ogwumike to control the glass.
- Seattle’s Defense: The Storm’s fourth-ranked defensive rating (94.4) can limit Ionescu, who struggles against top defenses.
- Turnovers and Pace: Seattle’s 20.7 turnovers per game could be exploited by New York’s 1.8 steals per game (Ionescu), but the Storm’s iso-heavy style may keep the score low.
Betting Tips
- Storm +5.5 (-110): Seattle’s 8-2 ATS record against the Liberty and their 4-1 ATS as underdogs in 2025 make this a value pick, especially given New York’s 5-12 ATS home record.
- Under 167.5 (-110): The under has hit in five of the last seven head-to-heads and 5-1-1 in New York’s last seven home games. Both teams’ defensive strengths and Seattle’s low-scoring tendencies (early 80s average) point to a grind.
- Nneka Ogwumike Over 17.5 Points (-108): Ogwumike’s 59.5% two-point shooting and 24-point performance against the Liberty exploit New York’s weakened interior without Jones.
- Skylar Diggins-Smith Over 2.5 Threes (+120): Diggins-Smith’s 51.9% three-point shooting over her last five games and Seattle’s reliance on her scoring make this a high-value prop.
- Breanna Stewart Over 22.5 Points (-104): Stewart’s 32-point outing against Seattle and 15+ shot attempts in nine straight games make this a safe bet, despite New York’s struggles.
- Same-Game Parlay (SGP): Storm +5.5, Under 167.5, Ogwumike Over 7.5 Rebounds (+300). Ogwumike’s rebounding consistency (7+ in three of her last five) pairs well with the spread and total trends.
Key Players to Watch
- Liberty:
- Breanna Stewart: 21.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.1 BPG; her 32-point game vs. Seattle shows her ability to dominate.
- Sabrina Ionescu: 17 PPG, 2.8 3PM; her three-point volume (9.5 attempts recently) is key, but Seattle’s defense may limit her efficiency.
- Storm:
- Skylar Diggins-Smith: 18.3 PPG, 6.2 APG, 43.8% 3PT; her game-winning layup vs. Atlanta and hot shooting make her a focal point.
- Nneka Ogwumike: 17.2 PPG, 8.5 RPG; her size advantage over New York’s depleted frontcourt is critical.
- Gabby Williams: 16 PTS, 7 REB, 5 AST in the last Liberty game; her all-around impact could tilt the game.
Sentiment and Outcome
Posts on X reflect excitement for the matchup, with @WNBA noting Seattle’s upset potential after their 79-70 win, led by Gabby Williams’ stat-stuffing performance (16 PTS, 7 REB, 5 AST, 3 STL). @stackscovers’ 73% WNBA hit rate backs the Over 167.5, but most sources lean toward the Under due to defensive trends. The Liberty’s home loss (their second of 2025) in the actual game, as reported by @WNBA, confirms Seattle’s ability to compete, though this was not predicted universally. Analysts like Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai favor Seattle covering +5.5, citing their frontcourt advantage and New York’s struggles without Jones.
Final Note
While the Liberty are favored due to their talent and home court, Seattle’s defensive edge and ability to exploit New York’s missing pieces give them a strong chance to cover or win outright. For bettors, the Storm’s spread and the Under offer value, with Ogwumike and Diggins-Smith as focal points. Catch the game on CBS or Paramount+ for what promises to be a playoff-caliber showdown.
