Concerns Mount for Rutgers Star
Ace Bailey, once a projected top-three pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, is reportedly slipping down draft boards as the June 25-26 draft approaches. The 18-year-old Rutgers freshman, known for his elite shot-making and 6’10” frame, has seen his stock drop due to concerns about his pre-draft process and on-court limitations. This analysis explores the reasons behind his slide and potential landing spots, optimized for searches like “Ace Bailey NBA Draft 2025” and “Top prospect draft stock falling.”
Reasons for the Slide: Pre-Draft Missteps and On-Court Flaws
Bailey’s draft stock has taken a hit primarily due to his refusal to work out for teams in his projected range and underwhelming NBA Draft Combine interviews, which raised red flags about his coachability and professionalism. His college stats—17.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1.0 steals per game on 46/35/69 shooting splits—highlight his scoring prowess but reveal weaknesses. His 0.8 assists per game, 0.4-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, and reliance on contested mid-range jumpers (62.5% of his shots) signal tunnel vision and questionable shot selection. Bailey’s ball-handling is unpolished, limiting his ability to create off the dribble, and his 69.2% free-throw shooting raises concerns about shooting consistency. Defensively, while his length and 1.3 blocks per game show promise, his upright stance and lack of strength (202.8 lbs) allow stronger opponents to exploit him. Rutgers’ disappointing 15-17 season, despite boasting Bailey and fellow top prospect Dylan Harper, has also fueled doubts about his ability to elevate team success.
Draft Range: From Top-Three Hype to Mid-Lottery Uncertainty
Initially projected as a potential No. 3 pick to the Philadelphia 76ers, Bailey’s range now spans No. 3 to No. 6, with some mocks slotting him to the Utah Jazz at No. 5 or Washington Wizards at No. 6. The 76ers, seeking win-now talent around Joel Embiid, may opt for a more polished prospect like VJ Edgecombe, whose ball-handling and 77.9% free-throw shooting suggest a safer floor. Charlotte (No. 4) and Utah could view Bailey’s upside as too enticing to pass, but his slide past the top five is increasingly likely. Comparisons to Michael Porter Jr. and Brandon Miller highlight his potential as a three-level scorer, but his rawness draws parallels to riskier prospects like Rudy Gay, requiring patient development.
Potential Fit and Future Outlook
Bailey’s ideal landing spot is a team with playmakers to reduce his creation burden, allowing him to focus on spot-up shooting and cutting. Utah, rebuilding around Lauri Markkanen, could pair Bailey with a facilitator to maximize his scoring (41% 3FG on 5.1 attempts). Washington, with young talents like Bilal Coulibaly, offers a low-pressure environment for growth. However, Bailey’s refusal to engage fully in the pre-draft process could deter teams prioritizing cultural fit. To reach his ceiling—potentially a 20-PPG wing like Porter—he must improve his handle, playmaking, and defensive fundamentals. If he slides to No. 6, the Wizards could gain a high-upside steal, but his immediate impact may be limited compared to peers like Cooper Flagg or Dylan Harper.
